Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 17.137438 19.549962 22.146971 25.146339 28.510707 32.163764 36.426295
2025-02-02 13.913779 17.259474 21.135091 25.939560 31.717656 38.423937 46.777095
2025-02-09 11.833855 15.502290 19.958128 25.737683 33.001424 41.790513 53.189220
2025-02-16 10.174198 13.998628 18.845367 25.389749 33.939836 44.668481 59.078442
2025-02-23 9.075582 13.029907 18.228223 25.493218 35.302879 47.995833 65.552504
2025-03-02 8.243827 12.304457 17.823188 25.779554 36.845222 51.560764 72.452491
2025-03-09 7.476661 11.572651 17.314937 25.835713 38.013824 54.620261 78.763705
2025-03-16 6.729631 10.785592 16.642709 25.574940 38.673820 56.961737 84.147364
2025-03-23 6.220559 10.295957 16.343923 25.801373 39.999631 60.250839 90.965714
2025-03-30 5.918132 10.089428 16.436264 26.590400 42.162321 64.805791 99.775189
2025-04-06 5.406984 9.502530 15.895612 26.364826 42.770446 67.096489 105.354586
2025-04-13 4.708604 8.545130 14.697341 25.021005 41.566965 66.603451 106.727538
2025-04-20 4.476678 8.355956 14.724708 25.640859 43.480682 70.950690 115.692849
2025-04-27 4.272106 8.195517 14.785429 26.314701 45.513417 75.575544 125.303261
2025-05-04 3.937037 7.771687 14.367257 26.154227 46.165783 78.045316 131.622400
2025-05-11 3.600467 7.313262 13.852110 25.786684 46.440241 79.905514 137.030103
2025-05-18 3.372180 7.034219 13.626862 25.896461 47.507262 83.073092 144.654450
2025-05-25 3.190328 6.826548 13.511368 26.185284 48.884056 86.793856 153.320573
2025-06-01 2.990946 6.566134 13.278507 26.242790 49.851183 89.860489 161.011459
2025-06-08 2.766147 6.233993 12.886038 25.978102 50.224220 91.924688 167.082512
2025-06-15 2.622120 6.053592 12.766583 26.207837 51.485247 95.545034 175.923112
2025-06-22 2.555364 6.028874 12.945115 27.008124 53.818968 101.111182 188.318972
2025-06-29 2.377143 5.749541 12.601237 26.779335 54.232507 103.314695 194.929378